Are we in a crypto bull market? From using advanced technical indicators to reading complex candlestick charts, this question seems best reserved for experienced crypto traders with a deep understanding of these tools. Fortunately, while technical analysis is a valuable skill, it's certainly not the only option when it comes to sensing market trends and identifying potential bull markets. Thanks to the existence of alternative, non-traditional indicators, crypto enthusiasts with an eye for detail can gain valuable insights into the market. By exploring other non-technical data points, you can start to piece together the puzzle that is the overall crypto market sentiment and form your own informed opinion about the market's trajectory.
Keen to find out what some of these alternative data points are? Read on as we cover the essential non-technical indicators signaling that we're in a crypto bull market.
What is a crypto bull market?
Crypto bull markets are periods of sustained price increases for various coins and tokens as excitement and optimism take hold of the crypto market. We can liken it to a rising tide that lifts most cryptocurrencies, regardless of their overall fundamentals or the narratives driving them.
Studying crypto bull market cycles with non-technical indicators
Like any other asset market, the crypto markets are cyclical and typically go through cycles of exciting highs and crushing lows. Understanding these patterns can be helpful in determining your entries and exits when trading cryptocurrencies. The question lies in how crypto traders will be able to determine when a crypto bull run might be starting. While technical analysis plays a role for experienced crypto traders, there are plenty of non-technical indicators that can give you clues on which stage we're at in the entire cycle of the crypto market. Ideally, these non-technical indicators will also tell us if we're on the edge of the next crypto bull run or if the crypto market is due for a severe correction as the bullish momentum runs out of steam. These non-technical indicators can be broadly classified into media attention, user behavior, and industry developments.
Media attention
Mainstream news coverage
"Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high as traders pile into Bitcoin trade."
If you're someone who follows the social media channels of news outlets or frequently tunes into the news, one sign we're in a crypto bull market is that you'll see such headlines prominently featured across various news segments. From financial commentators discussing different altcoins to crypto prices being a key talking point, this surge in mainstream media attention is an indicator that crypto is capturing the bulk of the public's attention. As news outlets tend to emphasize stories that cater to the interests of their audience, it's clear that an increase in crypto news coverage is a sign of bullish momentum, since news outlets wouldn't dedicate airtime to a niche topic unless they believe there's significant interest from their viewers.
Crypto YouTube growth metrics
One effective way to understand the sentiment of the crypto market is to see how dedicated crypto media channels are performing. This can range from crypto channels on YouTube to crypto podcasts on Spotify. A surge in metrics like subscriber growth, user engagement, and overall views could represent a growing interest in crypto-related content, as this increased engagement suggests that users are actively seeking information and education about cryptocurrencies. Additionally, this focus on education can be a positive sign that a crypto bull market is on the horizon, since informed traders are crucial for a healthy market that makes rational decisions based on a strong understanding of the underlying technology and its potential applications.
Celebrity involvement and endorsements
From Elon Musk openly talking about Dogecoin on Saturday Night Live to Tom Brady's endorsement of the now-defunct FTX, celebrity crypto endorsements were everywhere during the previous crypto bull market. We could see something similar for this next crypto bull run, with a new wave of celebrities promoting their favorite crypto projects or launching their own NFT projects. As a double-edged sword, such celebrity involvement can either bring wider public attention and fuel the bull run thanks to the short-term buzz or potentially inflate unsustainable bubbles in certain projects and cause a crash when the hype inevitably fades.
User behavior
Search engine trends
If you're a crypto beginner and are feeling curious about a specific coin or token, chances are you're not alone. By inputting search terms like "buy crypto" and "best cryptocurrencies" on search engines like Google, users are essentially indicating that they're in crypto information-gathering mode. In other words, a spike in crypto-related searches and keywords on Google Trends can be a strong indicator of rising public interest towards learning more about crypto. This is likely due to a reaction towards FOMO from all the chatter on social media and the increased coverage of cryptocurrencies by mainstream media. As more people start researching the crypto space and get interested in trading various cryptocurrencies, it can signal a potential crypto bull run on the horizon.
Social media chatter
Has your social media feed been buzzing about crypto recently? During the euphoric stage of a crypto bull market, it seems like everyone seems to be talking about the latest blockchain project or the potential of a new token. This social media frenzy is often fueled by fear of missing out (FOMO) as budding new crypto traders seek to hop on the bandwagon in a bid to not get left behind. This leads to rampant crypto-related discussions on X, Reddit, or other social media platforms as crypto traders huddle up and collectively highlight the next big trade worth getting into. While a healthy dose of skepticism and doing your own research is always advisable, a spike in social media discussions can indicate growing public interest, potentially hinting that we're in a crypto bull run.
Crypto app store rankings
A key sign of retail trading participation is the ranking of crypto apps on the Google Play Store and Apple App Store. From centralized exchanges like the OKX app on the Play Store to crypto trackers like CoinGecko on the App Store, cryptocurrency apps offer users a one-stop shop for all things crypto by catering to a range of user needs. From access to trending coins and tokens to tracking crypto market movements, downloads and engagements with these crypto apps often reflect user interest in the crypto markets. During a bull market, with retail trader interest surging, these crypto apps tend to climb the App Store and Play Store rankings in the finance category. This increased visibility on the charts of the top free apps translates to a wider user base, further fueling the market frenzy and excitement.
Industry developments
Adoption by major brands and businesses
From Gucci's entrance into the metaverse with its Gucci Vault to Nike-RTFKT NFTs, we saw a record number of major brands hop on the crypto bandwagon. Beyond making crypto media headlines and being on trend, these brand forays were a strategic attempt to tap into a new generation of crypto curious consumers and position themselves at the forefront of innovation. A surge in the number of big-name crypto deals and partnerships with established brands and businesses could hint that the bullish momentum overrunning the crypto market is far from over.
A surge in crypto listings
Whether it rains or shines, the crypto world is constantly buzzing with innovation as blockchain developers behind crypto projects often have what's colloquially known as a 'BUIDL' mindset that calls for constant building and growing of the crypto ecosystem. This becomes especially true during a crypto bull market as Venture Capitalists and angel investors flush with funds saved from the bear market loosen their purse strings. Thanks to the influx of funding, there'll typically be a surge in new crypto projects vying to capitalize on the crypto market's bullish momentum. If you're noticing an increase in new listings on centralized exchanges, we're likely in a crypto bull market as crypto projects seek to grab the attention of crypto traders by making their coins and tokens ready for trading.
The 'shoeshine boy' indicator: a contrarian look at crypto bull markets
Have your relatives been asking for tips about crypto trading? How about the local taxi driver who's asking for crypto advice mid-ride? While some crypto traders might be waving these queries off as questions that crypto beginners often have, it's key to realize that these crypto trading concerns might just have to do with the frothiness of the crypto markets.
Due to the crypto market frenzy and hype, we might see a rush of mom-and-pop crypto traders entering the markets due to FOMO, akin to the flurry we saw during previous crypto markets. According to Joseph Kennedy's recounting of the 1929 Wall Street Crash, he immediately knew a crash was due when a local shoeshine boy displayed blind optimism by offering him stock tips while he was getting his shoes shined. Similar to what we saw during previous bull runs, this influx of retail participation can be a signal that the market might be overheating. While increased interest from crypto newcomers doesn't guarantee an immediate crash, it's certainly one contrarian view to keep in mind as we progress through the stages of a crypto bull market.
Final words and next steps
Although technical analysis and charting can be a valuable tool for experienced traders, non-technical indicators also offer valuable insights for crypto traders regardless of their experience level. By tracking media coverage, studying user behavior, and following industry developments, you can gain an alternative perspective and understanding of the overall crypto market sentiment. No single indicator is a guaranteed predictor of future market performance. However, by considering these various data points and complementing them with technical analysis, you can ultimately make more well-rounded and informed decisions about your crypto trades.
Keen to learn more about the cryptocurrencies with the highest market cap? Get started by checking out our definitive guides to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Once you're done and looking to give crypto trading a go, check out our various coin pages for Bitcoin and Ether to begin your crypto trading journey with us.
© 2024 OKX. This article may be reproduced or distributed in its entirety, or excerpts of 100 words or less of this article may be used, provided such use is non-commercial. Any reproduction or distribution of the entire article must also prominently state: “This article is © 2024 OKX and is used with permission.” Permitted excerpts must cite to the name of the article and include attribution, for example “Article Name, [author name if applicable], © 2024 OKX.” No derivative works or other uses of this article are permitted.
